With kickoff at Old Trafford imminent, we have one last opportunity to predict the final 2015/16 table without the aid of results. The following is a look at what the numbers say will happen when the final whistle blows in May.
This predicted final table is based on a statistical model built using data from the 2009/10 season through the 2014/15 season. The model takes into account previous year final position, summer transfer spending, and whether or not a team is competing in the Europa League. Of course, many clubs are not quite done buying players, so these predictions are to be taken as if all clubs stopped spending today.* And, yes, despite what 2013/14 Spurs and 2014/15 Liverpool will tell you, more summer spending tends to mean more success.
|12||West Bromwich Albion|
Because the model predicts what will happen on average, there are no major surprises in this expected table. The Top 4 remain unchanged from 2014/15, Spurs finish 6th behind Liverpool, and the three promoted teams go down. As with virtually any model, not all variables can be accounted for and the final table is unlikely to look like this, but it will probably look quite similar.
*The table is up to date as of Tuesday, August 4th